TEHRAN – Since the beginning of the new water year, September 23, 2025, till May 21, the country has received 224 mm of rain, indicating an increase of 3.8 percent compared to the long-term amount, according to the Meteorological Organization.

The recorded rainfall has been abundant in Hormozgan, South Khorasan, Ilam, Bushehr, and West Azarbaijan provinces. However, Tehran, Qom, Semnan, Markazi, and Qazvin have received lower rainfall, respectively, IRIB reported.

Precipitations are forecast to drop next week. It will be normal and less than normal in the northern strip; low or no rainfall is expected in other parts of the country.

El Niño can lead to normal precipitation in fall

As Iran has entered the El Niño phase, particularly in spring and summer, precipitation is forecast to be low in the southeast of the country in summer, but normal in fall, Ahad Vazifeh, the head of the Meteorological Organization, has said.

Currently, El Niño and La Niña phases are in neutral conditions, that is, the difference between the temperature of the water in the surface of the Pacific Ocean and 200 meters below the surface of the ocean, in central and eastern parts, is less than 0.5 degrees cooler compared to a normal situation, which indicates neutral conditions, he added.

However, based on simulated models, the temperature of water at the surface of the ocean is predicted to get more than 0.5 degrees warmer, and enter El Niño Southern Oscillation phase, ISNA quoted Vazifeh as saying.

The situation is not expected to affect summer much as summers are mostly dry in the country; rainfalls in the southern half of Sistan-Baluchestan, east of Hormozgan, and south of Kerman will be less than normal.

Precipitation in the fall will be influenced by El Niño and are projected to be normal, unlike last year, in which rainfall dropped significantly.

‘El Niño’ or “the boy” is widely used to describe the warming of sea surface temperature that occurs every few years, typically concentrated in the central-east equatorial Pacific.

‘La Niña’ or “the girl” is the term adopted for the opposite side of the fluctuation, which sees episodes of cooler than average sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific.

Rainfall restores many wetlands

Thanks to the increase in average rainfall, the water inflow to wetlands across the country has improved compared to last year, IRIB quoted Arezou Ashrafizadeh, an official with DOE, as saying.

In Gilan province, Bojaq wetland is in good standing. Anzali wetland is in fair condition after the removal of invasive water hyacinths. However, Gorgan Bay, and Miankaleh wetland require additional measures to be restored.

About 70 percent of Quri Gol wetland, the only fresh wetland, in East Azarbaijan, is filled with water. Compared to the same period last year, the water level of the wetland has increased by 27 cm, reaching 1912.43 meters now.

Quri Gol wetland hosts over 92 bird species, which are all migratory birds, except redhead coots, 14 species of reptiles, 4 species of amphibians, and one species of fish, as well as 280 plant species.

In Fars province, 80, 30, and 10-15 percent of Maharloo, Arjan, and Bakhtegan wetlands are filled with water.

In Khuzestan province, Hour al-Azim and Shadegan wetlands are in optimal shape. Until last year, Hour Al-Azim wetland, located on the border of Iran and Iraq, was grappling with water scarcity.

Intense rainfalls have led Shimbar, Zarivar, and Helleh wetlands to be filled to 100 percent, and overflow.

Marreh wetland in Qom, and Miqan wetland, in Markazi provinces are in a favorable condition.

MT/MG